How It Works

Better AI questions start with a goal, context, and a way to judge the result. Five questions to ask before saving a prompt, plus a reusable workflow example.

A worked example of news verification using a fictional library story: trace the original source, check dates and statistical scope, separate independent evidence, and end with a bounded conclusion.

The thinking behind How It Works, Human Nature, Slow Down, Sweat, and Save Effort—and a small way to use each section in everyday life.

The Grapes of Wrath scores 680L and Diary of a Wimpy Kid 950L. See what reading levels measure, how Lexile, AR, and Guided Reading differ, and when to get help.

When orchestras auditioned behind a screen, women's odds of advancing rose. See how Rawls's veil of ignorance works, what experiments show, and its limits.

A 1977 drought favored big-beaked finches, then rain reversed it. See what survival of the fittest means, who coined it, and why it can't justify cruelty.

Learn how to curate your information diet, reduce automatic noise, and keep room for reliable news, real enjoyment, and thoughtful disagreement.

Behavioral economics via a 401(k) default that lifted enrollment from 37% to 86%: core concepts, a subscription example, a checklist, and how nudges misfire.

Kahneman's team forecast two years for a textbook. It took eight, and the book was never used. Five common cognitive biases, and the checks that catch them.

Three FBI examiners matched a Madrid bombing fingerprint to the wrong man. Here is how confirmation bias works, and how to test a belief before it locks in.

In 1981, senators said halting a $1.1 billion waterway would waste taxpayer money. Here is how the sunk cost fallacy works, and a five-minute stop-or-go test.

Circle of competence through Michael Jordan's 1994 baseball season: why skill is task-specific, how to find your boundary, and how to expand it with feedback.

First principles thinking through Malcom McLean's shipping container: separating requirements from habits, a six-step rebuild, and where the method misleads.

The inversion mental model through Charlie Munger's 1986 "guaranteed misery" speech: why thinking backward finds risks, how to run a premortem, and a worksheet.

Mental models through John Snow's 1854 cholera investigation: why two models can fit the same facts, how to find where they disagree, and an index by task.

Second-order thinking through the Haifa day-care fine that made parents later: first vs second-order effects, where surprises hide, and a worksheet to copy.

In 1902, Hanoi paid for every rat tail. People cut tails off live rats and let them breed. Here is how the cobra effect works, and how to test a reward.

Feedback loops in systems thinking, through the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank run: how reinforcing and balancing loops work, why delays matter, and how to read one.

Wells Fargo hit its cross-selling goal with millions of accounts customers may never have authorized. Here is how Goodhart's law works, and how to avoid it.

The iceberg model in systems thinking, applied to Deepwater Horizon: one misread test, the near misses and structures beneath it, and how to dig into your own.

Systems thinking through MIT's beer game, where flat demand still caused wild orders: stocks, flows, delays, why blame misleads, and a six-step investigation.

Systems thinking vs design thinking via the PlayPump, a pump kids turned by playing: where each method would have caught its failure, and how to combine them.

Van Valen's fossil data showed old species die out as often as young ones. See how the Red Queen effect works in biology, banks, and careers, and what to do.

A famous 1999 paper said most networks follow a power law; a 2019 test of nearly 1,000 found it rare. See density vs tail, log-log traps, and a 7-step check.

Robert Moses never won an election yet ran New York's bridges for 34 years. See how tolls, bill drafting, and bonds gave him power, then map one decision.

Information asymmetry explained through Akerlof's rejected lemons paper: adverse selection, moral hazard, signals, screening, and a 5-minute audit for deals.

In 1992 Sears oversold car repairs in 90% of undercover tests after tying pay to sales. See how to trace incentives, spot bad targets, and avoid cynicism.

Use AI without losing critical thinking: make a first attempt, challenge assumptions, verify important claims, and test what you can do unaided.

Critical thinking explained through Clever Hans, the horse that passed a 13-expert inquiry in 1904: six core skills, misplaced doubt, and a quick claim check.

Critical thinking and problem solving through Semmelweis's 1847 handwashing test: rule out causes, test one change against a comparison, and make the fix last.

Critical thinking in the workplace, via the Reinhart-Rogoff error a grad student caught: questions that change decisions, a meeting protocol, and a quick check.

Critical thinking vs analytical thinking, shown through Abraham Wald's WWII bomber data: what each one does, how they fail alone, and a 5-minute two-pass check.

How to teach critical thinking, based on Stanford research where fact checkers beat historians: a 45-minute lesson, a reasoning rubric, and transfer practice.

Thiokol engineers said not to launch below 53°F. By 11 p.m. the answer was yes. Here is a six-step decision-making process and where each step broke that night.

Bezos sorted decisions into one-way and two-way doors before choosing a process. Here is how to match a matrix, tree, premortem, or DACI to your decision.

Decision making styles explained through US Airways Flight 1549: how directive, analytical, conceptual, and behavioral styles worked together in four minutes.

Ethical decision making through the 1982 Tylenol recall: why blame and responsibility differ, how six ethical lenses apply, and a 5-minute check you can reuse.

Group decision making through the Bay of Pigs and the Cuban Missile Crisis: why silence sank one plan, and the meeting habits that drew out honest dissent.

In 1772, Benjamin Franklin told Joseph Priestley how to decide, not what to decide. Here is the rational decision making model, a worked tie, and its limits.

When TV cigarette ads were banned in 1971, tobacco profits rose. The reason was a dominant strategy. Here is how to spot one and why it can trap everyone.

Axelrod's famous tournament was won twice by the simplest strategy entered. Here is how game theory works: players, payoffs, best responses, and equilibrium.

In 1,417 penalty kicks, pros mixed sides almost exactly as Nash equilibrium predicts. Here is how to find best responses and equilibria in any payoff matrix.

A game show contestant got his rival to split by vowing to steal. Here are six classic game theory games, their payoff tables, and the test for equilibria.

How to calculate opportunity cost using a complete example covering freelance work, study, and rest, separating the forgone best alternative, the earnings gap, sunk costs, and value that will not convert into money.

The law of increasing opportunity cost, explained through America's WWII war production: inside vs along the frontier, a worked table, and constant costs.

Buffett called buying Berkshire Hathaway a $200 billion mistake, though he never lost that money. Here is what opportunity cost means, and how to find yours.

The opportunity cost formula explained with Ricardo's 1817 wine and cloth numbers: forgone value, return gap, per-unit cost, graph reading, and a quick check.

Sunk cost fallacy vs opportunity cost, explained through Intel's 1985 exit from memory chips, a personal course ledger, recoverable costs, and a checklist.

Trade off vs opportunity cost, explained through Eisenhower's 1953 bomber-versus-schools speech, a Saturday example, five-line worksheet, and common mix-ups.

When something looks absurd, put what people say next to what they actually get paid for. A fictional Venetian wine merchant story shows how to do it, then three classic misaligned-incentive cases (Goodhart, the cobra effect, Wells Fargo) and a four-step routine you can run on your own daily observations.

A field guide to thirteen kinds of power inside an organization, from final sign-off and information control to expertise and the right to bypass process, with concrete workplace examples.

Information asymmetry is the default state of nearly every transaction, and most of the money in a market is made from that gap. Covers adverse selection, the lemon market, signaling versus screening, why brand names and expensive store fronts work as signals, and a four-step audit you can run before your next negotiation or investment.